Venezuela opposition leader Machado weighs return home amid US reticence

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado faces a growing dilemma over when to return home from abroad to rally support, amid reticence from the Trump administration about her homecoming, four opposition sources and two political analysts said.

Machado left the country late in 2025 to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, after largely living in hiding since a contested 2024 election. She has repeatedly promised to return, including after the US ouster of President Nicolas Maduro in January and twin earthquakes in June. But US officials have privately asked her to delay her return after the quakes.

The question of Machado’s return could reshape the political landscape in Venezuela, where US-backed talks aimed at remaking the political system ahead of elections do not include her movement. Though she commands the highest approval rating among political figures connected to Venezuela, her support slipped in August.

Four opposition sources said Machado will return, but no date has been set. One added that the leader, currently in Panama, plans to travel to the US beforehand, although no itinerary has been established.

“She is going to return. She'll go to the United States, but not to ask for permission,” said one source close to Machado, adding that Machado’s focus upon her return would be to push for fair elections.

Machado sought to cultivate US President Donald Trump as an ally well before Maduro’s removal. But since the ouster, Trump has repeatedly expressed support for interim President Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s former deputy, and hailed oil deals by the US government and major energy companies.

Too soon for elections: Trump

Trump said in September that it is too soon to consider democratic elections.

Machado’s long-time associate, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said in a September interview that while she had every right to return, she was playing an important role organising the Venezuelan diaspora.

The US worries Machado could disrupt its transition plans if she were to return and rally supporters to push for Maduro-era officials to leave power, said one political analyst, who asked not to be named. Asked about the timing of Machado’s return, a State Department spokesperson declined to discuss private conversations.

US-backed talks between a faction of the opposition and the interim government, aimed at remaking the country’s political system ahead of eventual elections, are set to resume this week.

Though another source close to Machado said she had proposed leading negotiations herself, the US instead backed the leader of the 2015 legislature, which it recognises as democratically elected, and the talks so far do not include Machado’s political movement.

Machado did not respond to a request for comment about her possible return, her relationship with the US or the negotiations.

Venezuela’s Information Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Machado’s popularity slips

Machado commanded huge crowds while campaigning in 2024, as she travelled around the country calling for a return to democracy.

The opposition coalition she led, which posted most ballot-box-level vote tallies online, says it won 67 per cent of the presidential vote. Though international observers questioned the official results, which showed a win for Maduro, the government never published detailed tallies and the country’s top court backed Maduro.

Machado has the highest approval rating among 15 political figures connected to Venezuela – including Trump and Rodriguez – in the monthly Latam Pulse survey by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg, but her support dipped in August to 53 per cent approval from a high of 72 per cent in July.

“The positive boost Maria Corina received after the earthquake has faded amid growing uncertainty. The changes she promised, at least in the public imagination, seem increasingly out of reach,” AtlasIntel chief executive Andrei Roman said on social media platform X.

“Even if it is not her fault, the current situation is affecting her credibility and her ability to build the future most Venezuelans envisioned after Maduro's removal.”

Machado will pay a political price for saying she would return to Venezuela after the earthquakes, then not doing so, said one opposition figure who is not part of Machado’s faction, adding that her relationship with Washington is uncomfortable.

“It’s not an easy situation.”

The quakes killed at least 6,500 people and thousands more are missing.

Despite Maduro’s ouster and Trump’s oil deals, Venezuelans still suffer patchy public services and poor healthcare, said Maracaibo metal worker and local opposition organiser Gabriel Hernandez, 54, as he waited for a bus.

People would be ready to take to the streets to back Machado, he said.

“We’re all waiting for Maria Corina to return. We need the person we have placed our trust in to take the reins in this highly uncertain situation, and that can only happen with her presence here and then elections,” Hernandez said.

“Without a doubt, we would take to the streets with her and ensure that she becomes the candidate, the winner and the president of this country.” REUTERS